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中国持续暴雨及洪涝灾害的成因与预测 预览 被引量:6

The Causes and Prediction of the Persistent Storm Rainfall and Flooding Disaster in China
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摘要 持续性特大暴雨及洪涝灾害的成因及其预测,是国际科学界难以攻克的难题之一.本文综述了作者近20年来对越赤道气流的研究及其与中国持续性特大暴雨和洪涝灾害的关系,并简要介绍了北京大学李宪之教授有关"宏观系统"的概念及国家地震局曾小萍研究员对地磁场异常与暴雨和洪涝关系的研究成果,以及在以上科研成果基础上创立的"气象与地球物理综合法"在1998-2002 5年中,在中国汛期降水预测实践中所取得的结果. The causes and prediction of persistent storm rainfall and the flooding disaster is one of the most difficult problems in the world scientific community.A review on the author's research in the field of the cross\|equatorial flow and the relationship with the storm rainfall and flooding disaster in the last 20 years was made.At the same time,the conception of the “Larg\|scale System between two Hemispheres” presented by Prof.Li Xianzhi (Sjan\|zsi Li) and Prof.Zeng Xiaoping's research results—the relationship between the geomagnetic anomaly and the storm rainfall as well as the flooding disaster in China was introduced too.It is founded that a “synthesis of meteorology and geophysics” upon the above results to predict the storm rainfall and heavy flooding.The 5 years operational test from 1998 to 2002 showed that the “synthesis of meteorology and geophysics”approach has reasonable forecasting skill and further study and experiments are needed to improve this method.
作者 李曾中 程明虎 曾小苹 LI Zengzhong 1) CHENG Minghu 1) ZENG Xiaoping 2) ( 1) Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing,100081; 2) Institute of Geophysics,China Seismological Bureau,Beijing,100081)
出处 《北京大学学报:自然科学版》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2003年第z1期134-142,共9页 Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis
基金 国家"九五"计划重中之重科技项目(96-908)及中国气象科学研究院"跨世纪青年学术骨干"基金资助项目
关键词 越赤道气流 宏观系统 地球磁场异常 持续性暴雨及洪涝灾害 成因 预测 cross-equatorial flow larg-scale system between two hemispheres geomagnetic anomaly of the Earth persistent storm rainfall and flooding disaster causes prediction
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