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中国-东盟出口结构相似度的研究 预览 被引量:1

On the Similarity of China-ASEAN Export
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摘要 2002年中国-东盟自由贸易区成立,使得中国与东盟的经贸合作越发紧密.中国与东盟在自然条件、资源禀赋、发展水平上具有很大的相似性,因此中国-东盟贸易关系是竞争还是互补一直是研究热点.基于按SITC REV.2 3位数分类的中国和包括越南在内的东盟六国的出口产品数据,本文计算了中国和东盟在美国和日本市场上总体和按Lall贸易商品分类的出口相似度.计算结果表明,中国和东盟六国在日本市场上总体相似度高于美国;中国和新加坡在美国市场上高技术产品和资源性产品竞争日趋激烈;中国和亚洲四小虎在美国市场竞争趋缓,但在日本市场上吻合度较高;中国和越南在美日市场上相似度近年来大幅提升.最后本文驳斥了“中国威胁论”,并提出中国要把握与东盟不同层次国家不同技术水平产品的互补性机遇,发展自己的优势产业以及在人民币升值环境下中国急需优化出口结构的政策建议. In year 2002,China-ASEAN free trade area was established,which connected economic and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN more closely.ASEAN has great similarities with China in natural conditions,resource endowment and levels of development,thus whether the trade relation between China and ASEAN is competitive or complimentary has always been a hot issue.This paper,based on SITC REV.2 3 digits export product data of China and six ASEAN countries,is to analyze trade relation of China and ASEAN in the US and Japan market,and calculate export similarity according to Lall trade product classification.The result showed the total export similarity index of China and ASEAN 6 is higher in Japan market than that in US market;the resource products and hi-tech products of China and Singapore is competitive in US market;trade competition between China and Four Tigers of Asian are diminishing in US market but still fierce in Japan market;and export similarity index between China and Vietnam has increased sharply both in Japan and US market recently.Finally,the paper refuted 'China threat theory' and proposed that China should take advantage of complementarities existed between China and different ASEAN countries in regards to merchandise of different technical level as well as promoting industrial structure in the environment of RMB appreciation.
作者 刘语臻 LLIU Yu-zhen
出处 《湖南商学院学报》 2012年第6期共7页 Journal of Hunan Business College
关键词 中国-东盟 出口相似度指数 Lall分类标准 China-ASEAN export similarity index Lall classification
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