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南水北调对长江口盐水入侵影响的预测 预览 被引量:13

PREDICTON OF THE CHANGES OF SALINITY INTRUSION IN THE YANGTZE ESTUARY
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摘要 本文简单地介绍了长江口地区盐水入侵情况,洪季长江上游径流量大,盐水入侵区在长江口外,对工农业生产没有什么影响。枯季,特别在干旱年份,长江口盐水入侵较为严重,在最不利的情况下,整个南支河段可为3‰左右的盐度所控制。文中根据实测资料的统计分析,预测了枯水年、平水年和丰水年南水北调对上海市吴淞口氯度变化的影响;还采用一维近似计算和相关分析法两个途径,预测南水北调后长江口5‰盐水入侵长度的变化情况。最后指出,洪季调水对长江口盐水入侵影响甚微,枯季调水,则需持慎重态度。长江口北支是盐水入侵的第二个自然污染源,如果堵塞北支,则可完全抵销南水北调所带来的对长江口盐水入侵的影响。 Based upon the analysis of observed data,this paper shows that the length of salinity intrusion of the Yangtze Estuary is mainly controlled by runoff. During flood season the effect of salinity intrusion is negligible, while at dry season it is remarkable and 3PPT salinity water may be found throughont the South Branch.The following results can be obtained by means of the method of correlation:( 1 ) The variation of dimensionless parameters with Li/Lo, wh-ich expresses the change of the length of salinity intrusion .(2 ) The relation of the probability of emergence of more than 200, 500, 1000 PPM Ohlorinity at wuson to the runoff at Datong.According to these analyses, the lenth of salinity intrusion and the chlorinity at wuson can be predicted dy theeffects of diversing discharge of the Yangtze River into Northern China.If fresh-water discharge of 1000 c. m.s is diversed, the length of 5PPT salinity intrusion at ebb slack will be increased about 0.4 KM.during flood season, while at dry season it can be increased about 2.5KM.Meanwhile the time of emergence of more than 200-1000 PPM chlorinity at wuson will be increased by factor 25-38 percent during flood year, or increased by factor 109-182 per cent during dry years.So the effect of water diversing is more serious in dry years than in flood years.The computed results of the length of salinity intrusion by means of the approximate method of ebb slack are also presented. The results correspond with those of the correlation.
作者 韩乃斌 Han Nai-bing(Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute)
出处 《地理研究》 1983年第2期99-107,共9页 Geographical Research
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