期刊文献+

SRES A2情景下中国气候未来变化的多模式集合预测结果 预览 被引量:90

MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION FOR CLIMATE CHANGE TREND OF CHINA UNDER SRES A2 SCENARIO
在线阅读 免费下载
收藏 分享 导出
摘要 采用政府间气候变化委员会资料中心的模式预测结果,本文分析了SRES A2温室气体和气溶胶排放情景下中国大陆21世纪前30年的10年际气候变化趋势.研究揭示:大陆冬季和夏季表面温度、表面最高温度和最低温度分别升高0.3~2.3℃、0.1~2.0℃、0.5~2.7℃,增幅大体上呈现东西向带状分布,由南至北升温逐渐加强,且增幅随时间加大.此外,上述三气候要素冬季升温幅度要大于同期夏季、表面最低温度升幅要强于同期表面最高温度,冬季和夏季表面温度的季节内变化范围减小.冬季东亚地区海平面气压异常幅度在-1.0hPa至0.4hPa之间变化,呈东西向带状分布,表现为南正北负、随时间推进异常幅度有所加大,正负交界面向南扩展;同时,东北、华北和西部海平面气压负异常较大.夏季海平面气压异常空间分布与冬季相似.2001~2030年,青藏高原大部、大陆东南部和河套大部分地区降水量增加0.1~0.8mm/d. Based on the outputs as simulated by seven climate models under SRES A2 greenhouse gas and aerosol scenario, we analyze the decadal climate change trend of China during 2001 to 2030. It is revealed that the surface temperature, the maximum temperature, and the minimum temperature over China will rise by 0.3-2.3℃, 0.1-2.0℃, and 0.5-2.7℃, respectively, and enhancement magnitude is generally larger toward high latitudes and gradually enlarges with time march. In addition, the warming magnitude of variables mentioned above will be larger in winter than synchronizing summer, and the increase of the surface minimum temperature will be larger than the maximum temperature in the corresponding period, which leads to the smaller intra-seasonal variation of the surface temperature. Sea level pressure anomalies over East Asia in winter will be confined within -1.0hPa to 0.4hPa and exhibit a zonal band-shape distribution, with the positive (negative) values in south (north) parts. Moreover, the anomaly magnitude will become larger, and zero contour line will move southward with time running, at the same time with larger negative values in Northeast, North, and West China. Sea level pressure anomalies in summer will resemble that in winter. The results also show that summer precipitation will increase by 0.1~0.8mm/d over most parts of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, Southeast China, and the Hetao region during 2001 to 2030.
作者 姜大膀 王会军 郎咸梅 JIANG Da-Bang 1,2 WANG Hui-Jun1 LANG Xian-Mei11 Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China 2 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
出处 《地球物理学报》 SCIE EI CSCD 北大核心 2004年第5期 776-784,共9页 Chinese Journal of Geophysics
基金 中国科学院知识创新工程项目,国家自然科学基金,国家科技攻关项目
关键词 气候变化 气候预测 SRESA2情景 温度 海平面气压 降水 SRES A2 scenario, Temperature, Sea level pressure, Precipitation.
  • 相关文献

参考文献7

  • 1[1]Houghton J T, et al. eds. IPCC. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001. 1 ~ 881 被引量:1
  • 2[5]Guo Y F, Yu Y Q, Liu X Y, et al. Simulation of climate change induced by CO2 increasing for East Asia with IAP/LASG GOALS model. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2001, 18:53 ~ 66 被引量:1
  • 3[6]Gao X J, Zhao Z C, Ding Y H, et al. Climate change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model. Adv.Atmos. Sci., 2001, 18(6): 1224 ~ 1230 被引量:1
  • 4[15]Stott P A, Tett S F B, Jones G S, et al. External control of twentieth century temperature variations by natural and anthropogenic forcing.Science, 2000, 15:2133 ~ 2137 被引量:1
  • 5[16]Tett S F B, Jones G S, Stott P A, et al. Estimation of natural and anthropogenic contributions to 20th century, Hadley Centre Tech Note 19, Hadley Centre for Climate prediction and Response, Meteorological Office, RG12 2SY, 2000, UK 1 ~ 52 被引量:1
  • 6[17]Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, et al. IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000.1 ~ 599 被引量:1
  • 7[19]Lambert S J, Boer G J. CMIP1 evaluation and intercomparison of coupled climate models. Clim. Dyn., 2001, 17:83 ~ 106 被引量:1

同被引文献1724

引证文献90

二级引证文献1299

投稿分析

相关作者

内容加载中请稍等...

相关机构

内容加载中请稍等...

相关主题

内容加载中请稍等...

浏览历史

内容加载中请稍等...
;
使用帮助 返回顶部 意见反馈
新型冠状病毒肺炎防控与诊疗专栏