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中国大陆大震临震预报概率计算 预览

CALCULATION OF IMMEDIATE PREDICTION PROBABILITY FOR LARGE EARTHQUAKE IN CHINA
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摘要 本文应用大震前临震突发异常及其距发震时刻的时间间隔分布特征,研究了大震发震概率随时间的变化。结构表明,单项前兆的预报能力很低,多项前兆的综合预报概率较高。因此,能够对大震作出较好的临震预报。本文以唐山地震为例进行了验证。 Using the immediate burst precursor of large shocks and the distributive character of their time interval, we have studied the variation with time of the probability of immediate earthquake occurrence. The results show that the predicative level of single precursor is very low, but for multiprecursor, the comprehensive probability is able to describe the change before earthquake and a better prediction can made using it The conclusions were verified taking the Tangshan earthquake as example.
作者 田少柏 张文冕 Tian Shaobai, Zhang Wenmian, Yang Liming(Earthquake Research Institute of Lanzhou, SSB, China)
出处 《西北地震学报》 CSCD 1993年第4期 69-76,共8页 Northwestern Seismological Journal
关键词 临震预报 预报概率 大震 地震预报 Impending Earthquake Prediction Large Earthqnake Probability of Prediction
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