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基于非线性正交回归模型预测城市建设用地量 预览 被引量:3

Applying the Nonlinear Orthogonal Regression Modeling Predict the Construction Land Quantity:A Case Study of Tanggu Technology to District of Tianjin City
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摘要 采用非线性正交回归模型(NORM),以GDP、固定资产投资、消费品零售额为主要影响因子,预测天津市塘沽区2006-2010年建设用地量和土地供应量,并分析了塘沽区土地资源利用规律及趋势。预测到2010年,低、高经济运行模式下塘沽区建设用地量分别为93.64km^2和93.98km^2,置信区间分别为±15.79km^2和±15.80km^2;2010年低、高经济运行模式下土地供应量分别为227.58km^2和207.85km^2,分别是同期建设用地量的242%和221%。2005-2009年塘沽区高经济运行模式下建设用地量高于低经济运行模式下建设用地量,2010年后高、低经济运行模式下建设用地量和土地供应量接近,经济发展对土地资源的依赖逐渐减弱,土地资源利用渐趋规范、合理、有序。 Using the gross domestic product (GDP),fixed assets investment and retail total amount of consumer goods as major impact factors, the nonlinear orthogonal regression modeling technology is used to predict the construction land quantity and the land supply quantity from 2006 to 2010 in Tanggu district of Tianjin city,and to analyze the rules and tendencies of the application of land resources in Tanggu district. The results show that the predicted construction land quantity is 93. 64± 15.79 km^2 under the low economy operation pattern until 2010,while it is 93.98±15.80 km^2 under the high economy operation pattern. In 2010,the land supply quantity under low economy operation pattern is 227. 58 km^2 , it is 2. 42 times to the construction land quantity,and its quantity under high economy operation pattern is 207.85 km^2 ,2. 21 times to the construction land quantity. The construction land quantity under high economy operation pattern is larger than that of under low economy operation pattern during 2005 to 2009, the construction land quantity and land supply quantity tends to be close under high and low economy operation patterns, the dependency of economy development on the land resources is decreased gradually, the utility of land resources is more canonical, rational and ordered. The researching results can provide scientific evidences for the layout of construction land and the repertory of land supply of Tanggu district.
作者 丛沛桐 贾艳杰 王启 CONG Pei-tong ,JIA Yan-jie ,WANG Qi ( 1. College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642 ; 2. College of Urban and Environmental Science, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300384 ,China)
出处 《地理与地理信息科学》 CSCD 北大核心 2008年第1期 75-79,共5页 Geography and Geo-Information Science
关键词 塘沽区 建设用地 预测 非线性 正交回归模型 Tanggu district construction land prediction nonlinearity orthogonal regression model
作者简介 丛沛桐(1965-),男,教授,博士生导师,从事3S技术在资源环境领域中的应用研究,已发表论文40余篇。E-mail:congpeitong@163.com
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