Based on the Fujiao Meso-scale Model System （FJMMS） ,an experimental 5-member Ensemble Prediction System （EPS）is being developed. In this paper,the precipitation forecasts of the experimental EPS during the 2004-2007 rainy seasons in Fujian were verified by comparing to the rainfall observations. It shows that the performance of each ensemble member was equivalent to predicting precipitation. Though the EPS mean, along with all members,could not predict heavy rains well, it was better than each member when predicting moderate rains. It also indicates that in terms of the ranked probability score and the relative operation characteristics,the probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts （PQPFs） were skillful enough to be applied in predicting heavy rain events in rainy season.
numerical weather prediction