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时间序列分析在麻疹疫情预测预警中的应用研究 预览 被引量:51

The Applied Research of the Time Series Analysis in the Forecasting and Early Warning of Infectious Diseases
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摘要 目的研究时间序列分析在传染病疫情预测预警中的应用,并探讨提高模型预测准确性和实用性的思路。方法以1952年1月至2006年12月江苏省麻疹发病资料建立时间序列分析模型,以2007年的发病资料作为模型预测效果的考核样本,然后将2007年的实际数据加入到原始序列中建立模型用2008年的数据来考核,并对以年为单位的发病资料进行分析和讨论。先采用差分方法对序列资料进行平稳化,然后进行定阶并估计参数,建立ARIMA模型,最后对预测结果进行分析和评价,探讨对疫情进行预警的方法和思路。结果江苏省麻疹的发病趋势自2006年明显上升之后保持平稳,但有小幅波动,这与实际情况吻合。检验表明模型结果具有较好的参考价值。结论用时间序列分析对传染病发病情况的拟合结果满意,预测和预警效果良好,为传染病防治提供了依据。 Objective To make research into the application of the time series analysis in the forecasting and early warning the infectious diseases,and elaborate on the idea of improving the accuracy and applicability of the model.Methods To build a time series analytical model applying the incidence data of measles in Jiangsu Province from January,1952 to December,2006.To set the incidence data in 2007 as the assessment sample of the forecasting effect of the model;afterwards,add the actual data of 2007 into the original sequence and build a model and make an assessment using the data in 2008,and make an analysis and discussion of the incidence data by year.First make a smooth process of the sequence data by means of difference method;then determine the order and estimate the parameters;finally analyze and evaluate the ultimate forecast results,probe into the method and idea of forecasting the incidence.Results The incidence trend of measles in Jiangsu Province maintains stable after an evident rise in 2006,although with fluctuation within a narrow range,which coincides with the practical situation.This indicates that the results of the model is of good reference value.Conclusion The fitting result in the time series analysis of the incidence of the infectious disease is satisfactory,the forecasting and early warning achieve good effects,which also provides scientific basis for the prevention and control of infectious diseases.
作者 彭志行 陶红 贾成梅 丁晓艳 马福宝 汪华 赵杨 易洪刚 于浩 陈峰 Peng Zhihang,Tao hong,Jia Chengmei,et al.Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics,Nanjing Medical University(210029),Nanjing
出处 《中国卫生统计》 CSCD 北大核心 2010年第5期 459-463,共5页 Chinese Journal of Health Statistics
基金 江苏省自然科学基金重点项目(BK2010079)
关键词 时间序列分析 ARIMA模型 麻疹 预测 预警 Time series analysis ARIMA model Measles Forecasting Early warning
作者简介 通讯作者:陈峰
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