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单一值预报向概率预报转变的价值:谈谈概率预报的检验和应用 预览 被引量:41

The Utility of the Transition from Deterministic to Probabilistic Weather Forecasts—Verification and Application of Probabilistic Forecasts
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摘要 基于大气系统的非线性和复杂性,加上初值和模式等本身无法避免的一些不确定性,天气预报从单一值的确定论向多值的概率论转变不但符合气象科学的实际也是更好地服务社会之必需。但是这种转变的理性思考对很多用户、甚至气象工作者自己都不是很清楚。为了帮助人们理解和加速这一转变,本文就这种转变所面临的一些普遍困惑谈一些想法。作为促成这一转变的中心技术集合预报——有关的问题已经在本文的姐妹篇中作了讨论。在本文中将主要讨论另外几个问题,即如何衡量一个概率预报的好坏?如何应用概率信息来作决策?以及为什么概率预报比单一值决定论预报更有经济价值?为了易懂,本文用浅显的说理结合举例的方式进行阐述,以便读者特别是广大预报员和用户能在实际中运用。 Given the nonlinear and complex nature of atmospheric system combined with the uncertainties associated with initial conditions and models,it is not only a requirement from science but also a necessity to better serve user community to transit weather prediction from deterministic to probabilistic format. However,the reason behind the transition is not clear but full of debate and confusion to many including public,end-users and even meteorologists themselves.To clarify some of these and to expedite the transition, a few issues were discussed.The ensemble forecasting which is a central technique to facilitate such a transition has been discussed in the companion paper of this article.In this paper,a few other issues related to ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts were discussed,which include(1)how to measure the merits of a probabilistic forecast?(2)how to use probabilistic information in decision-making process? and(3) why an ensemble-based probabilistic forecast has,in general,more utility or economical value than a single-value deterministic forecast does? To be easily understood and applicable to real world situations by readers especially forecasters and end-users,plain language illustrated with examples was used to explain the related concepts.
作者 杜钧 邓国 DU Jun, DENG Guo( 1 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Washington,DC,U.S.A.; 2 National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China )
出处 《气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2010年第12期10-18,共9页 Meteorological Monthly
基金 国家自然科学基金41075079 公益性行业科研专项(GYHY200706001 GYHY200906007)资助
关键词 预报不确定性 概率预报 检验 气象用户 经济价值 花费-损失比 行业气象决策模式 forecast uncertainty probability forecast verification end-user economic value cost-loss ratio decision-making model
作者简介 杜钧,主要从事数值集合预报业务和开发研究.Email:Jun.Du@noaa.gov
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