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基于自回归移动平均模型的PICC护理门诊量分析 被引量:2

Analysis of peripherally inserted central catheter nursing outpatient amount based on autoregressive integrated moving average model
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摘要 目的 探讨自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)在PICC护理门诊量分析中的应用,掌握其变化规律并进行预测.方法 以南京医科大学附属淮安第一医院2008年1月至2012年12月PICC护理门诊量为研究对象,建立时间序列模型,对序列进行平稳化,并识别模型、估计参数以及诊断模型,最终建立ARIMA模型进行拟合及预测.结果 本院PICC护理门诊量具有长期的增长趋势及季节性特点,模型ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12能较好地拟合PICC护理门诊量,自回归参数(AR1)为0.314,移动平均参数(MA1)为0.996,季节移动平均参数(SMA1)为0.399,常数项(C)为0.004,均具有统计学意义(P<0.05).拟合优度R2=0.787,Box-Ljung=8.117(P=0.919),模型残差为白噪声.预测2013年的PICC护理门诊量将继续稳步增加.结论 ARIMA模型适合于探求PICC护理门诊序列的变化规律及未来发展趋势的把握.ARIMA模型应用于PICC护理门诊量,不仅为医院管理者掌握其变化规律提供参考,也为预测PICC护理门诊未来的发展提供了一个新的思路. Objective To explore the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in peripherally inserted central catheter (PICC) nursing outpatient amount and to study its regularity for forecast.Methods PICC nursing outpatient amount in our hospital from January 2008 to December 2012 was chosen as the study object.ARIMA model was built by stationary sequence,model identification,parameter estimate and model diagnosis to fit and forecast.Results PICC nursing outpatient amount had characteristics of long-term growth trend and seasonality.ARIMA (1,1,1) (0,1,1) 12 model had good fitness to the PICC nursing outpatient amount with autoregressive coefficient (AR1 =0.314),moving average coefficient (MA1 =0.996),seasonal moving average coefficient (SMA1 =0.399) and constant term (C =0.004),all of which were statistically significant (P < 0.05).Goodness of fit R2 =0.787,Box-Ljung =8.117 (P =0.919),and predicting error was white noise.It was predicted that outpatient amount in 2013 would continue to increase steadily.Conclusions ARIMA model is suitable for hunting variation of PICC nursing outpatient amount and grasping the future trend.Application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model will provide not only reference for hospital administrators to learn about variations,but also a new way to predict the future development of PICC nursing outpatient.
作者 高健 张菊芬 李建 陈梅 杜静 GAO Jian,ZHANG Ju-fen,LI Jian,CHEN Mei DU Jing( 1.Information Center, Huai'an First Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University, Huai'an 223300, China;)
出处 《中华现代护理杂志》 2013年第23期2751-2755,共5页 Modern Nursing
关键词 经外周静脉插入中心静脉导管 护理 门诊量 ARIMA模型 预测 Peripherally inserted central catheter Nursing Outpatient amount ARIMA model Prediction
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