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和平之困:南苏丹分离公投及其反思 预览

The Plight of Peace: South Sudan’s Separate Referendum and the Reflections
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摘要 南苏丹公投是近年较为少见的成功分离案例,它是苏丹内战和平谈判的结果,属于协议式的民主分离公投。苏丹内战本来并不必然导致分裂,但苏丹南北的殖民历史等特性,使得和平解决苏丹内战的道路极为有限。由于苏丹地理位置特殊,境内资源分布不均、南北文化差异过大等内部原因,加上国际社会从中斡旋,公投解决南北争端成了一种可被尝试的且能够被各方接受的选择。然而,与外界的期待不同,南苏丹公投既有积极影响,也有严重的消极作用。南苏丹目前深陷内外交困的局面,究其根源,这与全面和平协议本身的缺陷、过于相信分离与和平的因果关系、外部大国追求自身利益等因素均有一定的关系。通过反思南苏丹公投,本文认为公投与分离都不是解决一个国家内部冲突的良方,而问题的本质在于如何处理权力与资源的分配问题。 The South Sudan referendum is a rare case of successful separation in recent years. This referendum is the result of peaceful negotiations on the Sudan’s civil war,and is a protocol referendum of democratic separation. In fact,the Sudan’s civil war did not necessarily lead to secession. However,the colonial history and diversity of the North and South Sudan made it extremely difficult for a peaceful resolution. Due to the special geographic location of Sudan,its uneven distribution of resources,apparent cultural differences between the North and the South,as well as the mediation of the international community,using referendum to solve disputes has become a possible option that can be accepted by all parties. The referendum has both positive and negative influences,and probably does not develop as the outside had expected. While North-South relations were unpredictable,the South faces fierce and cruel internal waves. The roots of internal and diplomatic difficulties in South Sudan might lie in the flaws in the comprehensive peace agreement,the farfetched link separation with peace,and the pursuit of self-interest by major stakeholders. This paper argues that neither referendum nor secession are good ways to resolve a country’s internal conflicts. Actually,the essential problem is to find an effective and lasting-peace strategy.
作者 许川 XU Chuan(School of International Studies,Renmin University of China)
出处 《阿拉伯世界研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2019年第2期49-61,119共14页 ARAB World Studies
基金 中国人民大学科学研究基金项目“公投制度及其对民族国家主权的新挑战”(15XNI005)的阶段性成果.
关键词 南苏丹 和平协议 分离公投 国家建设 South Sudan Peace Agreement Separate Referendum National Construction
作者简介 许川,中国人民大学国际关系学院2017级博士研究生.
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