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全球变暖背景下珠江流域极端气温与降水事件时空变化的区域研究 被引量:24

Regional Study on the Trends Precipitation Events in of Extreme Temperature and the Pearl River Basin
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摘要 利用中国气象局最新编制的0.5°×0.5°逐日地面气温、降水网格数据,统计了16种极端气温与降水指数来定义极端气候事件,通过改进的Mann-Kendall趋势检验方法对珠江流域极端气温与降水事件的时空变化特征进行了研究,并从区域的视角检验了变化趋势的显著性和一致性,最后通过偏Mann-Kendall检验探讨了极端气温和降水事件变化与自然界大尺度气候振荡的潜在联系。研究发现:①在过去半个多世纪里,珠江流域总体上呈现出极端高温事件增多,极端低温事件减少,短时间极端降水增多,长时间极端降水减少的趋势,珠江流域面临着高温干旱和暴雨洪涝的威胁;②极端气温事件的变化趋势具有区域尺度上的显著性和一致性,而极端降水事件在区域层面上的趋势则不明显,并且区域差异大;③反映了大尺度气候振荡的多变量ENSO指数年际变化对珠江流域极端气温与降水事件的变化趋势没有显著的影响,在一定程度上说明了极端气温与降水事件的变化趋势并不是自然界大尺度气候振荡导致的必然结果,而可能是与人类活动共同作用的结果。 With the risk of global warming, exploring the changing pattern of extreme climate events in differ- ent places is explored for disaster prevention and mitigation. The 0.5°×0.5° grid dataset of daily temperature and precipitation from China Meteorological Administration was used to defined extreme climate events based on the 16 kinds of extreme temperature and precipitation indices. Spatio-temperal variations of the extreme temperature and precipitation events were analyzed through the modified Mann-Kendall trend detecting method across the Pearl River basin, and the significance and consistency of the observed trends were also assessed in a regional perspective. Ad- ditionally, whether the observed trends are significantly linked to the large-scale climate fluctuation system was in- vestigated. The results indicate that a trend of more extreme high temperature events and less extreme low tempera-ture events, more short time precipitation events and less long time precipitation events has been found in the Pearl River basin over the past half century, which could, consequently, increase the drought and flood risks. It is worthwhile to note that the trends of extreme temperature events are field significant and regional consistent, while the trends of extreme precipitation events are not. Since no significant covariability has been found between the ob- served trends and the large-scale climate fluctuation system characterized by the multivariate ENSO index, these trends can not be seen as the inevitable outcome of large-scale climate fluctuation. Instead, that may be attributed to the common effects of natural and anthropogenic climate change.
作者 黄强 陈子燊 Huang Qiang, Chen Zishen (Department of Water Resource and Enviroment , Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China)
出处 《地球科学进展》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2014年第8期956-967,共12页 Advance in Earth Sciences
基金 国家自然科学基金项目“变化环境下广东旱涝时空变化规律与风险概率研究”(编号:41371498)资助.
关键词 气候变化 极端气温与降水指数 多变量ENSO指数 趋势检验 区域显著性与一致性 Climate change Extreme temperature and precipitation indices Multivariate ENSO index Trend analysis Field significance and regional consistency.
作者简介 黄强(1989-),男,广东清远人,博士研究生,主要从事极端水文事件与风险研究.E-mail:huangq52@mail2.sysu.edu.cn 陈子椠(1952-),男,福建福州人,教授,主要从事极端水文事件与风险研究.E-mail:eescz$@mail.sysu.edu.cn
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