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Circulation background of climate patterns in the past millennium: Uncertainty analysis and re-reconstruction of ENSO-like state 被引量:1

Circulation background of climate patterns in the past millennium: Uncertainty analysis and re-reconstruction of ENSO-like state
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摘要 自从超过十年起,全球温暖以前是否暂停了的问题,也就是温暖中断,吸引了气候科学社区包括的注意 IPCC。一些作者在气候系统把温暖的中断归因于内部变化,即,海洋空气发行量的再结合。因此,在重建上建议更高的要求是必要的为过去的千年的气候变化的发行量背景。然而,在在象相关地区性的气候模式的结论一样的最后千年上的大气的循环的变化的分析那么广泛地不同、矛盾,在很大程度上把无常带到我们地区性的甚至全球的气候变化的理解。在另一方面,在最后 10 年里高精确的 U/Th-dated 石笋氧同位素比率( <sup>18</sup > O )序列为中间、迟了的更新世的古气候学习提供了一个精确按年代先后的框架,在哪个从中国的所有作者拿了中国石笋 <sup>18</sup >是的 O 没有例外的夏天季风索引。然而,这个观点误导气候科学家进认为石笋 <sup>18</sup > O 能作为降水的代理数量。不过,所有这些记录有很多在,是众所周知的在低频率趋势普通。然而,大多数序列不能被仪器的降水记录校准,并且因此,中国并且甚至世界的气候研究框架的无常增加了。因此,气候学澄清矛盾的起源并且尽早减少无常是必要的。根据分析石笋 <sup>18</sup 的意义 > 在中国的季风区域的 O,在这建议一个新发行量代理的作者尝试糊:集成中国石笋氧同位素顺序重建热带和平的海表面温度坡度,即,在过去的千年上的大规模象 ENSO 一样国家。而且,作者推测那它在现代时间和中世纪的经期是温暖的,但是循环再结合在两个时期是不同的。并且自从最后一冰川的最大值,这推论能被更长的记录支持。换句话说,中国石笋 <sup>18</sup 的相同低频率的趋势的归属分析 > 大规模上的 O 证明象 ENSO 一样国家在不同时间规模在中国的季风区域控制气候变化(从 interannual,到世纪� The question of whether or not global warming has paused since more than ten years ago, namely "warming hia- tus", has attracted the attention of climate science community including the IPCC. Some authors have attributed the "warming hiatus" to the internal changes in the climate system, i.e., the recombination of ocean-atmosphere circulations. Therefore, it is necessary to propose higher requirements on reconstructing circulation background of climate change for the past millennium. However, the analyses of changes in atmospheric circulation over the last millennium as well as the conclusions of related re- gional climate patterns are so widely different and contradictory, bringing uncertainties to our understanding of regional even global climate change to a great extent. On the other hand, in the last 10 years the high-precision U/Th-dated stalagmite oxygen isotope ratio (δ^18O) sequences provided an accurate chronological frame for the paleoclimate study of the middle and late Pleistocene, in which all authors from China took the Chinese stalagmite δ^18O as the summer monsoon index without excep- tion. However, this point of view misleads the climate scientists into thinking that the stalagmite δ^18O can be as the proxy of precipitation amount. Nevertheless, it is well known that all of these records have a lot in common in the low frequency trend. However, most sequences cannot be calibrated by instrumental precipitation records, and thus the uncertainty of the climate research framework of China and even of the world has increased. Therefore, it is imperative for climatology to clarify the origin of contradiction and to reduce the uncertainty as early as possible. On the basis of analyzing the significance of stalag- mite ~180 in the monsoon regions of China, the author tries to propose a new circulation proxy in this paper: integrating the Chinese stalagmite oxygen isotope sequence to reconstruct the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature gradient, i.e., the large-scale ENSO-like state o
作者 TAN Ming Ming Tan[(1) ;
出处 《中国科学:地球科学英文版》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2016年第6期1225-1241,共17页 SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences
基金 The author is grateful to the reviewers for their constructive comments and to Andy Baker for his advice on English. Thanks also to Cai Binggui for supplying the data of TS9501, and Zhang Pingzhong, Cai Yanjun, Tan Liangcheng, Yin JianJun and Yang Yan for sharing their unpublished data, as well as to Duan WuHui for his assistance in the calculation of the EOF as well as making the figures of this paper. Special thanks to Professor Wang Shaowu for his discussions during his lifetime and the author would like to use this article to express his respect Jor him. This work was supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Priority Research Program (Grant No. XDA05080501), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB950101), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41030103) and Basic Research Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology (Grant No. 2011FY120300).
关键词 不确定性分析 气候系统 环流背景 ENSO O状态 西太平洋副热带高压 西太平洋副高 全球变暖问题 The past millennium, ENSO, Circulation background, Climate pattern, WPSH, Stalagmite δ^18O, Circulation recombination
作者简介 Corresponding author (email: tanming@mail.iggcas.ac.cn)
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