期刊文献+

气候变化对华北平原主要农作物生长影响研究——以冬小麦、夏玉米为例 预览

Impact of Climate Change on Growth of Main Crops in North China Plain: A Case Study of Winter Wheat and Summer Maize
在线阅读 下载PDF
分享 导出
摘要 为了探讨未来气候变化对华北平原区农业生产的可能影响,收集了中国科学院栾城试验站15年的田间试验资料,下载了Had CM3气候模式A2、B2情景下2050s以及2080s气象资料,将降尺度后的气象资料输入DSSAT模型,模拟了未来冬小麦、夏玉米生育期、耗水量和产量的变化。结果表明:在未来气候情景下,栾城日均温将明显升高,冬小麦、夏玉米的生育期均将缩短,耗水量总体上均减少,冬小麦产量增加,夏玉米产量下降;将现有的中熟玉米品种调整为晚熟品种后,在未来气候情景下,冬小麦的生育期将缩短,耗水量将减少,产量将明显增加,而夏玉米的生育期将延长,耗水量将增加,产量将与现在相差不大。因此,调整作物品种是华北平原未来农业适应气候变化的重要途径。 In order to explore the possible effects of the future climate changes on the agricultural production in north China plain,we collected 15-year field experimental data from Luancheng Experimental Station,Chinese Academy of Sciences,downloaded the meteorological data under Had CM3 A2 or B2 scenarios in 2050 s / 2080 s,used SDSM model to downscale the data from Had CM3,and applied DSSAT model to simulate the changes in the growth period,water consumption,and grain yield of winter wheat and summer maize in future. The results showed that: under the future climate scenarios,the daily mean temperature in Luancheng would increase obviously,the growth duration of both winter wheat and summer maize would shorten,their water consumption would decrease,the yield of wheat winter would increase,and the grain yield of summer maize would decrease. After adjusting maize medium- maturing varieties to late- maturing varieties,under the future climate scenarios,the growth duration of winter wheat would shorten,its water consumption would decrease,and grain yield would significantly increase; but the growth duration of summer maize would extend,its water consumption would increase,and grain yield would change little. Therefore,adjusting crop varieties is an important approach to adapt to the future climate changes in north China plain.
作者 肖薇薇 许晶晶 XIAO Wei-wei, XU Jing-jing ( 1. Ankang University, Ankang 725000, China; 2. Engineering Technology Research Center for Hanjiang River Water Resource Protection and Utilization of Ankang City in Shaanxi Province, Ankang 725000, China; 3. Center for Agrieuhural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050021, China; 4. Institute of Agricultural Economy and Information, Jiangxi Academy of Agrieuhural Sciences, Nanehang 330200, China)
出处 《江西农业学报》 CAS 2016年第6期65-70,共6页 Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi
基金 陕西省教育厅项目(14JK1017) 安康学院高层次人才科研专项(2015AYQDZR04).
关键词 气候变化 耗水量 生育期 产量 冬小麦 夏玉米 华北平原 Climate change Water consumption Growth duration Yield Winter wheat Summer maize North China plain
作者简介 肖薇薇(1983-),女,陕西安康人,副教授,博士,主要从事气候变化对区域农业影响研究。
  • 相关文献

参考文献18

二级参考文献112

共引文献1241

相关作者

内容加载中请稍等...

相关机构

内容加载中请稍等...

相关主题

内容加载中请稍等...

浏览历史

内容加载中请稍等...
;
使用帮助 返回顶部 意见反馈