In order to explore the possible effects of the future climate changes on the agricultural production in north China plain,we collected 15-year field experimental data from Luancheng Experimental Station,Chinese Academy of Sciences,downloaded the meteorological data under Had CM3 A2 or B2 scenarios in 2050 s / 2080 s,used SDSM model to downscale the data from Had CM3,and applied DSSAT model to simulate the changes in the growth period,water consumption,and grain yield of winter wheat and summer maize in future. The results showed that： under the future climate scenarios,the daily mean temperature in Luancheng would increase obviously,the growth duration of both winter wheat and summer maize would shorten,their water consumption would decrease,the yield of wheat winter would increase,and the grain yield of summer maize would decrease. After adjusting maize medium- maturing varieties to late- maturing varieties,under the future climate scenarios,the growth duration of winter wheat would shorten,its water consumption would decrease,and grain yield would significantly increase; but the growth duration of summer maize would extend,its water consumption would increase,and grain yield would change little. Therefore,adjusting crop varieties is an important approach to adapt to the future climate changes in north China plain.
Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi
North China plain