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云南地区定点形变观测异常特征与地震预测研究 预览

Research on Anomalous Characteristics of Fixed Point Deformation and Earthquake Prediction in Yunnan Region
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摘要 对1966―2007年正式出版的《中国震例》中云南定点形变异常震例进行统计分析,发现云南地区6级以上地震前均有形变异常,且随着发震时间的逼近,定点形变异常数量有增加趋势。对2000—2015年云南定点形变观测异常进行分析,发现云南及其邻区6级以上地震发生前,定点形变均有显著异常出现。当显著形变异常数量N≥2,1年内云南及其邻区发生6级以上地震的概率可达75%。6~6.5级地震震前形变异常分布的震中距最远为470 km,7级地震达到700 km,且具有震级越大分布范围越广的特征。因此,形变异常台站数量可以作为云南及其邻区有6级以上地震的中短期预测指标。 In this paper,statistical analysis of the fixed point deformation anomalies collected in official publication of the Earthquake Cases in China from 1966 to 2007 in Yunnan was carried out. The results showed that there were deformation anomalies before MS≥6 earthquakes in Yunnan region. With the time approaching an earthquake,the number of fixed point deformation anomalies show increasing trend. Then we analyzed the fixed point deformation observation anomalies since 2000 in Yunnan. The results showed that the fixed point deformation shows significant anomalies before MS≥6 earthquakes in Yunnan and its surrounding area since 2000. When the number of significant deformation anomalies is N≥2,the occurrence probability of MS≥6 earthquakes may reach 75% in Yunnan and its surrounding areas in one year. The distribution of deformation anomalies before the M6 ~ 6. 5 earthquakes as far as 470 km,M7 earthquake reached 700 km,which shows the characteristics of the larger magnitude,the wider distribution. Therefore,the number of deformation abnormal stations can be used as short and medium term predictor of MS≥6 earthquakes in Yunnan and its surrounding area.
作者 李智蓉 付虹 高华宴 LI Zhirong, FU Hong , GAO Huayan2 ( 1. Yunnan Earthquake Agency, Kunming 650224, Yunnan, China) (2. Earthquake Administration of Lufeng County, Yunnan Province, Lufeng 651229,
出处 《地震研究》 CSCD 北大核心 2018年第1期90-97,共8页 Journal of Seismological Research
基金 云南省地震局传帮带项目“云南前兆观测资料及在地震预报中的应用”(C2-2014002) 云南省地震局青年地震科学基金项目“云南地区断层活动协调比和定点形变异常在地震预测中的综合应用”(2017K06)联合资助
关键词 云南地区 定点形变 地震预测 预测指标 Yunnan region fixed point deformation earthquake predictor predictor indictor
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