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同倍体杂交物种紫果云杉的生态位分化及其未来潜在分布区预测 预览

The Ecological Divergence and Projection of Future Potential Distribution of Homoploid Hybrid Species Picea purpurea
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摘要 【目的】以我国特有的同倍体杂交树种紫果云杉为对象,研究其与亲本树种丽江云杉和青杄间环境生态位的差异,并预测其在未来气候变化下21世纪50年代(2050s)和80年代(2080s)潜在分布区的变化。【方法】在收集紫果云杉及其亲本种地理分布信息的基础上,利用地理信息系统(Arc GIS)技术获取相应生境的环境变量,通过Kruskal-Wallis多重秩和检验、判别式分析(DFA)和主成分分析(PCA)等统计方法量化分析云杉属3个树种的生态位差异,并利用最大熵模型(Max Ent)结合3种大气环流模型(BCC-CSM1-1、CCCma_Can ESM2和CSIROMk3.6.0)模拟3个树种在3种气候变化情景(即温室气体最低排放,RCP2.6;中度稳定排放,RCP4.5;高度排放,RCP 8.5)下未来2050s和2080s的潜在分布。【结果】Kruskal-Wallis检验、DFA和PCA结果均表明紫果云杉生境的水热条件与亲本种间均存在显著差异。对水分条件而言,尽管紫果云杉生境的最冷季与最暖季降雨量居于亲本种之间,但其生境土壤湿度显著高于2个亲本种;对热量条件而言,紫果云杉生境的最冷月最低温显著低于2个亲本种,且地面结霜频率显著高于亲本。进一步对云杉属3个树种的未来潜在分布区模拟显示,紫果云杉仅在RCP2.6下2080s的潜在分布面积与当前相比略有缩减(约5%),而在此情景下2050s的潜在分布区面积和其余2个情景下2050s和2080s的潜在分布面积高于当前分布区面积。综合分析所有情景及时间段后发现,紫果云杉未来潜在分布区面积平均增加17%以上,且分布区明显呈现由青藏高原东南部边缘向内部扩张的趋势。而其亲本种青杄受气候变暖威胁严重,其潜在分布面积(综合所有情景及时间段)平均减少了21%以上,丽江云杉除在RCP4.5和RCP8.5下2080s的潜在分布面积稍高于当前(不到2%)外,其余情景下的潜在分布面积也都低于当前,其潜在分布面积� 【Objective】In this study,we analyzed the environmental divergence between the endemic homoploid hybrid tree species Picea purpurea and its progenitors P. wilsonii and P. likiangensis and predicted the change of their potential distribution under climate change for two future periods: 2050 s and 2080 s. 【Method 】 On the basis of collected geographical distributional information,the geographical information system software( Arc GIS) was used to obtain the environmental variables which was related to the distribution of P. purpurea and its parental species. Then the ecological divergence was quantified via Kruskal-Wallis multiple-range test,discriminant function analysis( DFA),and principle components analysis( PCA) etc. The distribution patterns of three Picea species under different climate change scenarios( i. e. the lowest,moderate,and the highest greenhouse gas emission scenario; RCP2. 6,RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 5) were estimated using maximum entropy analysis( Max Ent) and three general circulation models( BCC-CSM1-1,CCCma_Can ESM2 和 CSIRO-Mk3. 6. 0) for the 2050 s and the 2080 s.【Result】 The results from Kruskal-Wallis tests,DFA and PCA indicated that the water and heat availability for P. purpurea were all significantly different from its parental species.That is, despite of the precipitation of coldest and warmest quarter of P. purpurea was intermediate between its progenitors,its soil moisture was significantly higher than them; the min temperature of coldest month of P. purpurea was significantly lower than that of its parental species,and the ground-frost frequency of P. purpurea was inversely higher than that of its progenitors. Furthermore,results from simulation-based estimates revealed that the potential distribution area for P. purpurea would decrease( about 5%) in the 2080 s only under RCP2. 6,while in the 2050 s of this scenario and under other two scenarios,its distributional area in the two time periods were higher than the current. After integrated all three
作者 王婧如 王明浩 张晓玮 孙杉 赵长明 Wang Jingru1, Wang Minghao1, Zhang Xiaowei1,2, Sun Shan1, Zhao Changming1(1. State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-Ecosystems School of Life Sciences, Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000;2. College of Forestry, Gansu Agricultural University Lanzhou 730070)
出处 《林业科学》 CSCD 北大核心 2018年第6期63-72,共10页 Scientia Silvae Sinicae
基金 国家自然科学基金项目(31170571,31522013) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2022016zrct10).
关键词 紫果云杉 生态位分化 气候变化 地理信息系统 物种分布模型 Picea purpurea ecological divergence climate change geographical information system species distribution models(SDMs)
作者简介 赵长明为通讯作者.
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