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“3.01”暴恐事件对昆明入境旅游的影响 预览

Impact of “3. 01” Terrorist Incidents on Kunming's Inbound Tourism
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摘要 旅游业是一个对外界环境较敏感的行业,易受到突发事件的影响。暴恐事件属于危机事件的一种形式,由于其突发性、不确定性,对旅游业的破坏力大、持续时间长,因此应积极采取应对措施来降低暴恐事件给旅游业带来的冲击和损失。搜集昆明近三十年来的入境旅游统计数据,建立昆明入境旅游客流量和旅游外汇收入本底趋势线,结合月指数和本底线距平方法,高分辨率地分析了"3. 01"暴恐事件的影响。研究发现:2014年"3. 01"暴恐事件发生之后,昆明入境旅游客流量和入境旅游外汇收入受到了严重的冲击,2014—2016年三年共损失客流量86. 7万人次,损失率高达19. 3%;入境旅游收入损失共计43688. 6万美元,损失率高达26. 2%,该影响持续至今并有逐年扩大趋势。 Tourism was a very sensitive industry to the outside environment and was vulnerableto emergencies. The horror incident was a form of crisis incident,due to the suddenness and uncertainty,they were destructive to the tourism industry for a long time. Countermeasures should be actively taken to reduce the impact and loss of the terrorist incident on the tourism industry. This paper collected the statistics of Kunming's inbound tourism in the past 30 years,established the background trend line of Kunming's inbound tourist flow and tourismforeign exchange income,combined with the monthly index and the tourism background trend line anomaly observed index,high-resolution analyzing the impact of "3. 01"terrorist incidents. The results found that: After "3. 01"violent terrorist incidents occurred in2014,Kunming inbound tourism flow and inbound tourism foreign exchange income was seriously impacted,there was a significant decline. In 2014-2016,the total loss of tourist flow was 867 million,and the loss rate was 19. 3%. The total loss of inbound tourism revenue in Kunming amounted to $ 436. 886 million,with a loss rate of 26. 2%. The impact continued to this day and was expanding year by year.
作者 李中建 罗芳 孙根年 LI Zhong - jian1,2, LUO Fang2 , SUN Gen - nian1 ( 1. School of Geography and Tourism, National Demonstration Center for Experimental Geography Education, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi' an 710119, China; 2. School of Tourism and Public Administration, Jinzhong University, Jinzhong 030600, China)
出处 《资源开发与市场》 CAS CSSCI 2018年第10期1466-1469,1443共5页 Resource Development & Market
基金 国家社会科学基金项目“新时期国内旅游的抗周期性及经济效应研究”(编号:12BJY131) 陕西省自然科学基金项目“陕西省重点景区旅游经济溢出效应优化研究”(编号:2017KRM202) 西安市社科基金“基于游客感知的西安文化旅游吸引力测评与建设路径研究”项目(编号:18x64)联合资助
关键词 3.01暴恐事件 入境旅游 本底趋势线 本底距平 3.01 terrorist incidents inbound tourism tourism background trend line tourism background trend line anomaly observed index
作者简介 李中建(1981-),男,河南省辉县人,博士研究生,讲师,主要从事旅游经济运行研究。;通讯作者:孙根年(1961-),男,陕西省西安人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事旅游经济运行与危机管理研究。
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