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伊宁市1956--2015年强降雨特征及对洪灾的影响 预览 被引量:3

Characteristics of heavy rainfall in Yining City from 1956 to 2015 and its impact on flood
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摘要 基于伊宁市1956-2015年汛期(410月)的逐日降雨资料及洪灾资料,采用线性倾向估计、M—K突变分析、R/S分析3种方法,分析了伊宁市1956-2015年的强降雨变化特征以及对洪灾的影响。结果表明,伊宁市1956-2015年强降雨的年际变化表现出增加趋势,并对总降雨起主导作用,占总降雨的比例逐年增大;6、7月是强降雨及洪灾的集中月份,且强降雨的逐年增加趋势强于其他月份;洪灾发生频次在1986年后显著增加,发生频率约为每10年9次,洪灾发生频次与强降雨量存在极显著相关,当日降雨量大于15mm时,容易引发洪灾,其概率大于1/4;强降雨序列有着较好的赫斯特现象,未来将继续保持增加趋势。 Based on the daily rainfall data and flood data during the flood season (from April to October) from 1956 to 2015 in "fining City, by using three methods of linear tend estimation, M-K abrupt change analysis and R/S analysis, the characteristics of heavy rainfall change in recent 60 years and its impact on flood were analyzed. Results showed that the interannual variation of heavy rainfall showed an increasing trend and played a leading role in total rainfall. The proportion of total precipitation increased year by year. June and July were the concentrated months of heavy rainfall and flood, and the annual increase of heavy rainfall is stronger than that of other months. The frequency of floods increased significantly after 1986, with a frequency of about 9 times every 10 years. The frequency of flood occurrence was highly correlated with heavy rainfall. When the precipitation was greater than 15 mm, it was easy to cause floods, and the probability was greater than 1/4. The heavy rainfall sequence had a good Hearst phenomenon, and would continue to maintain an increasing trend in the future.
作者 李政 张文太 轩俊伟 LI Zheng1,2, ZHANG Wentai1,2, XUAN Junwei1,2( 1. College of Grassland and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China ; 2. Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Soil and Plant Ecological Processes, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China)
出处 《水资源保护》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2018年第6期49-55,共7页 Water Resources Protection
基金 “十二五”国家科技支撑计划(2014BAC15803) 国家自然科学基金(41761059)
关键词 强降雨 洪灾 线性倾向估计 M-K突变分析 R/S分析 伊宁市 heavy rainfall flood linear tend estimation M-K abrupt change analysis R/S analysis Yining City
作者简介 李政(1994-),男,硕士研究生,研究方向为水土保持生态恢复。E—mail:liz_94@163.com;通信作者:张文太,副教授。E-mail:zwt@xjau.edu.cn
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