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昆明市水资源承载力系统动力学模拟

A System Dynamic Model and Simulation for Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Kunming
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摘要 针对昆明市水资源短缺的现状和水资源系统所具有的复杂系统特征,在综合考虑水资源需求、水资源供给、污水再生利用、外地供水、缺水程度的影响等因素的情况下,利用系统动力学(SD)方法建立了昆明市水资源承载力SD模型,在现状延续型、经济发展型、资源节约型、环境友好型和协调发展型5种方案下模拟2015~2030年昆明市水资源承载能力的动态变化,寻求提高昆明市水资源承载力的途径。结果表明:现状延续型用水模式出现十分严重的水资源匮乏问题,水资源承载能力很容易达到极限承载值,不能实现昆明市资源环境与社会经济的可持续发展;经济发展型模式虽然提高了经济水平,但是加剧了生态环境污染和缺水问题,供需比低至0.25;采用资源节约型或环境友好型模式,虽然可以适当缓解生态环境污染及缺水问题,但是随着时间的推移,缺水现象依然严峻;而在建设资源节约型或环境友好型社会的前提下,适当减缓城市发展规模增速,实施水资源集约利用、污水处理再生和加强外地供水的协调发展型方案可以实现昆明市水资源的供需平衡,资源环境与社会经济可持续发展,为5种方案中的最优方案。 Regarding the status of water shortage in Kunming and the complexity of water system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model of water resources carrying capacity in Kunming(SD)with the system dynamics method, considering water demand, water supply, reuse of wastewater, field water supply, water shortage and other factors. By simulating the dynamic changes of water resources carrying capacity in Kunming from 2015 to 2030 under five schemes for the continuation of the status, economic development, resource conservation, environmental friendly and coordinated development type, we want to seek ways to improve the carrying capacity of water resources in Kunming city. The results show that the current continuation pattern of water resources water ha serious water shortages, and the water resources carrying capacity can easily reach the ultimate load-bearing value, and the sustainable development of resource, environment and social economy in Kunming cannot be realized;Although the economic development model ha improved the economic level, it ha exacerbated the problems of ecological environment pollution and water shortage, and the supply and demand ratio is lower than 0.25;Although the resource-saving or environmental friendly pattern ease the ecological environment pollution and shortage of water, but with the passage of time, water shortage s still severe;Coordinated development plan that appropriate to slow the growth of the scale of urban development, implementation of intensive use of water resources, sewage treatment and regeneration, strengthen the field of water supply under the premise of building a resource conserving and environment friendly society,can achieve a balance between supply and demand for water resources,resource environment and social and economic sustainable development in Kunming. The coordinated development plan is the best of the five options.
作者 杨子江 韩伟超 杨恩秀 YANG Zi-jiang;HAN Wei-chao;YANG En-xiu(School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Yunnan University,Kunming 650504,China)
出处 《长江流域资源与环境》 CAS CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2019年第3期594-602,共9页 Resources and Environment in the Yangtza Basin
基金 第四批云南大学中青年骨干教师培养计划项目(XT412003).
关键词 水资源 承载力 系统动力学 模拟 预测 water resources carrying capacity system dynamics simulation prediction
作者简介 杨子江(1975~),男,博士,副教授,研究方向为生态城镇与资源环境承载力.E-mail:Kmzjy@126.com.
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