Regarding the status of water shortage in Kunming and the complexity of water system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model of water resources carrying capacity in Kunming(SD)with the system dynamics method, considering water demand, water supply, reuse of wastewater, field water supply, water shortage and other factors. By simulating the dynamic changes of water resources carrying capacity in Kunming from 2015 to 2030 under five schemes for the continuation of the status, economic development, resource conservation, environmental friendly and coordinated development type, we want to seek ways to improve the carrying capacity of water resources in Kunming city. The results show that the current continuation pattern of water resources water ha serious water shortages, and the water resources carrying capacity can easily reach the ultimate load-bearing value, and the sustainable development of resource, environment and social economy in Kunming cannot be realized;Although the economic development model ha improved the economic level, it ha exacerbated the problems of ecological environment pollution and water shortage, and the supply and demand ratio is lower than 0.25;Although the resource-saving or environmental friendly pattern ease the ecological environment pollution and shortage of water, but with the passage of time, water shortage s still severe;Coordinated development plan that appropriate to slow the growth of the scale of urban development, implementation of intensive use of water resources, sewage treatment and regeneration, strengthen the field of water supply under the premise of building a resource conserving and environment friendly society,can achieve a balance between supply and demand for water resources,resource environment and social and economic sustainable development in Kunming. The coordinated development plan is the best of the five options.
Resources and Environment in the Yangtza Basin