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基于灰色模型的黄河下游流量预测研究 预览 被引量:1

Flow Predict of the Lower Yellow River Based on Grey Model
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摘要 流量演进过程具有一定的离散性,其中包含部分灰色信息,一般数学水文模型难以实现多尺度的流量预测。灰色系统模型能对原始数据进行挖掘和整理,在保持原序列形式的前提下,通过灰系统的生成,弱化数据的随机性并揭示其内在规律。基于灰色系统理论和灰色预测方法,通过对原始水文序列数据进行优化处理,构建GM(1,1)灰色模型,通过对模型累加预测值的逆处理,即可得原始数据序列的预测值和残差。再对残差数据二次构建关于残差的GM(1,1)灰色模型,得到优化的灰色模型,将模型应用于黄河利津水文站年平均流量的预测,研究结果表明:灰色模型具有直观性好、操作性强等优点,通过模型对利津水文站12 a的年平均流量的拟合和倒数5 a的预测,具有较高的精度,预测的相对误差在0.71%~10.64%之间,可为黄河下游防洪、水量调度等研究提供依据。 The evolution of flow has a certain dispersion,which contains some gray information,and the general mathematical hydrological model is difficult to realize complex multi scale flow prediction.The grey system model can be used to excavate and sort out the original data,through the formation of the gray system,weakening the randomness of the data and revealing its inherent law under the premise of keeping the original sequence form.Based on grey system theory and grey prediction method,the GM(1,1)grey model was constructed by optimizing the original hydrological sequence data and the data level ratio test,by inversing the cumulative predictive value obtained from the model,the predictive values and residuals of the original data sequence can be obtained.The GM(1,1)grey model of residuals was constructed twice by using the residuals data,combine the fitted residuals and predicted values,the optimized grey model was obtained.The optimized model was used to predict the average annual flow of the Yellow River Lijin hydrological station.The research results show that the grey model has the advantages of good intuitive,strong operability,fitting the 12 years average annual flow and predicting the last 5 years average annual flow of Lijin Hydrometric Station through the model,found that the relative error of the forecast is between 0.71%~10.64% with high accuracy that can provide the basis for the study of the Yellow River downstream flood control,water regulation etc.
作者 李浩 冯传烈 刘云 汪威 LI Hao;FENG Chuanlie;LIU Yun;WANG Wei(Yibin Agriculture Machinery Research Institute,Yibin 644000,China)
出处 《人民珠江》 2019年第1期63-68,共6页 Pearl River
基金 四川省科技计划项目(2017NZ0069).
关键词 灰色系统模型 GM(1 1) 流量 预测 黄河下游 grey system model GM(1,1) flow prediction the Lower Yellow River
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