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梯级水电建设环境下土石围堰漫溢风险研究 预览

Analysis on overflow risk from earth-rock cofferdam under environment of construction of cascade hydropower project
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摘要 针对在梯级水电建设环境下围堰度汛受来水、泄流等不确定性因素的耦合影响,以评估工程漫溢风险为目标,采用Monte-Carlo法仿真抽样技术及现有风险分析理论,按工程流域面积占比推求各级围堰施工期不确定性来水,结合工程安全度汛、溃堰失效两种不同泄洪方式建立梯级开发条件下土石围堰漫溢风险计算模型,并使用该模型进行了实例分析。结果表明:在梯级水电建设环境下上游工程安全度汛能有效降低下游工程的漫溢风险,与泄洪有关的水力参数对工程漫溢风险影响不大,而水文风险则是影响工程安全度汛的主要因素;当上游工程漫溢溃堰,改变了下游工程前的洪水组合方式会显著增大其漫溢失效的概率。研究成果可以合理预测梯级水电建设环境下工程的漫溢风险,能为梯级建设环境下土石围堰的设计及施工度汛提供重要的决策支持。 Aiming at the coupling influence from the uncertain factors of inflow, discharge, etc. on the cofferdam under the environment of the construction of cascade hydropower project and targeting at the overflow risk from the project, the uncertain inflows during the construction periods of all the cascades are estimated with Monte-Carlo simulation sampling technique according to the proportion of the watershed area of project, and then a model for calculating the overflow risk from earth-rock cofferdam under the cascade condition is developed in accordance with two different flood discharging modes, i.e. safety of project construction and failure of cofferdam during flood period;moreover, actual case analysis is made with the model as well. The result shows that the safety of the upstream project during flood period can effectively lower the overflow risk of the downstream project under the environment of the construction of cascade hydropower project, while the hydraulic parameters related to flood discharge have no larger influences on the overflow risk of project, but the main factor of the influence on the safety of project during flood period is just the hydrological risk. When the failure of the cofferdam of the upstream project occurs, the flood combination in front of the downstream project is to be changed, which is to significantly increase the probability of its failure. The study result can reasonably predict the overflow risk of project under the environment of the construction of cascade hydropower project, thus can provide an important decision-making support for the design of earth-rock cofferdam and its safety of construction during flood period.
作者 陈玉玺 卢晓春 陈渴鑫 郭志杰 陈博夫 CHEN Yuxi;LU Xiaochun;CHEN Kexin;GUO Zhijie;CHEN Bofu(College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, Hubei, China;College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China)
出处 《水利水电技术》 北大核心 2019年第2期177-183,共7页 Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
基金 国家自然科学基金项目(51509143).
关键词 梯级 土石围堰 施工安全度汛 漫溢风险 MONTE - Carlo法 预测模型 流域梯级水电开发 cascade earth-rock cofferdam safety of construction during flood period Monte-Carlo method overflow risk prediction model cascade hydropower development in watershed
作者简介 陈玉玺(1994—),男,硕士研究生,主要从事水利水电工程研究。E-mail: 1056153071@qq.com;通信作者:卢晓春( 1983—),男,副教授,硕士研究生导师,博士,主要从事水利水电工程方面的教学与研究工作。E-mail: luxiaochunl014@163. com.
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