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东江源寻乌水流域径流变化特征及其原因分析

The Variation Characteristics of Runoff and Its Driving Factors in the Xunwu River Basin of the Source Area of Dongjiang River
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摘要 东江源水资源安全影响着珠三角社会经济发展和香港繁荣稳定,径流是水资源安全评价的重要水文要素.该文收集东江源区干流寻乌水1980—2016年逐日水文气象数据、6期土地利用及土地耕作属性等数据,采用IHACRES水文模型和统计分析等方法,分析寻乌水径流变化特征及其影响因素.结果表明:在模型基准期(1980—1992)和变化期(2009—2016)中,径流年际变化模拟效果评价指标R^2、NS和PBIAS的值分别为0.99、0.99、0.37和0.82、0.82、0.04,这表明IHACRES模型适合寻乌水流域的径流模拟.在季节径流模拟时,春、夏和冬季模拟效果令人满意,0.72≤R^2≤0.92,0.71≤NS≤0.75,1.72≤PBIAS≤2.33;秋季模拟效果较差,R^2、NS和PBIAS值分别为0.53、0.39和-9.61.这表明气候要素是影响东江源区径流年际变化的主要原因,人类活动造成东江源秋季径流减少.结合土地利用图,变化期果园面积增长约40%,与林地减少面积相当,果树在秋季成熟期需要充足水分,从河道取水量增加,是秋季径流量减少的重要因素. The safety of water resources in the source area of Dongjiang River affects the social and economic development of the Pearl River Delta and the prosperity and stability of Hongkong.Runoff is an important hydrological factor for water resources security evaluation.The data include hydro-meteorological data and land use data,such as daily values of runoff,rainfall,temperature during 1980—2016,and land use maps and land tillage data of six phases,which is the main stream of the source area of Dongjiang River.The IHACRES model and statistical analysis methods are adopted to analyze the characteristics of runoff change and its driving factors in the Xunwu River.Some conclusions can be drawn as follows.The two stages of 1980—1992 and 2009—2016 are selected as the datum period and change period of the IHACRES model,respectively.The three evaluation criteria values(R^2,NS and PBIAS)of annual runoff simulation in both datum period and change period are 0.99,0.99,0.37 and 0.82,0.82,0.04,respectively,which indicates that IHACRES model is suitable for runoff simulation in the Xunwu River Basin.The effect of seasonal simulation is also acceptable(0.72≤R^2≤0.92,0.71≤NS≤0.75,1.72≤PBIAS≤2.33)except autumn.The R^2,NS and PBIAS values of the model in autumn are 0.53,0.39 and-9.61,respectively.These indicate that the climatic factors are the main causes of the interannual variation of runoff in the source area of Dongjiang River.Human activities induce the decrease of runoff in the source area of Dongjiang River in autumn.By analyzing the characteristics of land use change of the study area,the area of orchard increases by about 40%and the area of woodland decreases by about 40%in recent years.The orchards need sufficient water in the autumn mature period and increase water intake from river,which results in the reduction of the measured runoff in autumn.
作者 綦昕瑶 刘贵花 贺志明 齐述华 史佳旺 杨先擎 QI Xinyao;LIU Guihua;HE Zhiming;QI Shuhua;SHI Jiawang;YANG Xianqing(College of Geography Environment,Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research,Ministry of Education,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang Jiangxi 330022,China;College of Geographical Science,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou Fujian 350007,China;Jiangxi Weather Modification Office,Nanchang Jiangxi 300096,China)
出处 《江西师范大学学报:自然科学版》 CAS 北大核心 2020年第1期89-94,共6页 Journal of Jiangxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition)
基金 国家自然科学基金(41501026) 江西省教育厅科学基金(GJJ160321) 江西省博士后科研基金(2014KY13)资助项目.
关键词 东江源区 寻乌水流域 径流变化 IHACRES 土地利用变化 the source area of Dongjiang River the Xunwu River basin runoff change IHACRES land use change
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